In other sectors, the rapid growth of hydrogen as an energy carrier underpins major growth in demand for nickel and zirconium for electrolysers, and for platinum-group metals for fuel cells. Hydropower, biomass and nuclear make only minor contributions given their comparatively low mineral requirements. Solar PV follows closely, due to the sheer volume of capacity that is added. Wind takes the lead, bolstered by material-intensive offshore wind. The rise of low-carbon power generation to meet climate goals also means a tripling of mineral demand from this sector by 2040.
The expansion of electricity networks means that copper demand for grid lines more than doubles over the same period. Lithium sees the fastest growth, with demand growing by over 40 times in the SDS by 2040, followed by graphite, cobalt and nickel (around 20-25 times). Which sectors do these increases come from? In climate-driven scenarios, mineral demand for use in EVs and battery storage is a major force, growing at least thirty times to 2040. EVs and battery storage have already displaced consumer electronics to become the largest consumer of lithium and are set to take over from stainless steel as the largest end user of nickel by 2040. In a scenario that meets the Paris Agreement goals (as in the IEA Sustainable Development Scenario ), their share of total demand rises significantly over the next two decades to over 40% for copper and rare earth elements, 60-70% for nickel and cobalt, and almost 90% for lithium. However, as energy transitions gather pace, clean energy technologies are becoming the fastest-growing segment of demand. Until the mid-2010s, for most minerals, the energy sector represented a small part of total demand. The shift to a clean energy system is set to drive a huge increase in the requirements for these minerals, meaning that the energy sector is emerging as a major force in mineral markets. Electricity networks need a huge amount of copper and aluminium, with copper being a cornerstone for all electricity-related technologies. Rare earth elements are essential for permanent magnets that are vital for wind turbines and EV motors. Lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite are crucial to battery performance, longevity and energy density. The types of mineral resources used vary by technology.
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